Nifty Under the Shadow of Mṛita Avasthā Mondays

Written by Sagar Chaudhary Financial Market Researcher | Author | Educator X (Twitter): @ganntradeing 📞 +1 (438) 448-6881 The Moon has always been regarded as one of the most powerful influences in financial astrology, and when we align its phases, avasthās, and days of the week, certain patterns emerge that are not only fascinating from a philosophical perspective but also statistically significant when tested against market data. Among the eight classical avasthās of the Moon, Mṛita—literally meaning “dead” or “exhausted”—carries a reputation of weakness, inactivity, and tiredness. In Vedic thought, this is the state where the Moon no longer radiates vitality but instead drags energy down, slowing processes and creating lethargy. When this avasthā coincides with Monday, the very day ruled by the Moon itself, an interesting paradox unfolds. Mondays should normally carry the pure, nurturing essence of the Moon, yet under Mṛita, that essence turns pale, erratic, and inconsistent. The market, like the mind, becomes prone to confusion, indecision, and occasionally sharp downside bursts.

To test whether this astrological symbolism has practical meaning for traders, I examined an extended dataset of Nifty covering 2011 through 2025, isolating only those Mondays when the Moon was in Mṛita Avasthā. The results were striking: out of 103 such Mondays, the average daily return of the Nifty was –0.275%, while the median return was nearly flat at –0.003%. The win rate—meaning days when Nifty closed higher—stood at 49.5%, almost a coin toss. At first glance, one might conclude that there is no real edge. However, a deeper look reveals the hidden character of these days. On winning days, Nifty managed average gains of just +0.73%, but on losing days, the average loss swelled to –1.27%. The downside moves were almost twice as large as the upside moves, indicating that the real risk on such Mondays lies in unexpected sharp declines rather than gradual rallies. This asymmetry is the signature of Mṛita Avasthā Mondays: not consistently bearish, but structurally dangerous, with a tilt toward loss-making extremes.

Bank Nifty, often regarded as the higher-beta cousin of the Nifty, mirrored this behavior closely. Its average move on Mṛita Mondays was –0.266%, with a win rate of 50.5%. Again, direction was evenly split, but the downside magnitude outweighed the upside potential. This parallel reinforces the idea that the avasthā effect is not isolated to a single index but reflects broader market sentiment influenced by lunar conditions.

From an astrological lens, this makes sense. Mṛita Avasthā weakens the Moon’s ability to nourish, reflect, and stabilize. Instead of calm flow, it introduces anxiety, tiredness, and disorientation. On Mondays, when traders instinctively expect the market to reset after the weekend, the absence of lunar vitality creates a vacuum. News flow over the weekend, particularly global events, gets magnified, and traders return to their screens carrying uncertainty. The Moon, which governs sentiment, fails to steady this uncertainty, resulting in fragile conditions where bad news hits harder and good news struggles to sustain momentum. This explains why the downside bars are heavier than the upside bars in the statistical record.

History provides examples. In July 2011, a series of Mṛita Mondays delivered back-to-back declines, each between –0.7% and –1.9%, coinciding with global debt worries. Later, in April 2012, another Mṛita Monday saw Nifty plunge –1.70%, with Bank Nifty collapsing more than –2.0%, underlining how weak sentiment could not absorb pressure. On the flip side, rallies did occur, such as in October 2011 when Nifty soared +1.87% on a Mṛita Monday, but even then, the rally was more a relief rebound in an oversold condition than a sustainable bullish push. This confirms the qualitative rule: Mṛita Mondays may deliver rallies, but the weight of evidence suggests that losses bite harder, longer, and more dramatically.

For traders, the implication is clear: treat Mṛita Mondays as days to play defense first and offense second. When the market opens higher, especially in the first hour, the risk of a reversal increases. Short-on-strength setups become preferable. A common strategy is to watch VWAP or Bollinger Band rejections: when Nifty spikes early toward resistance, fails to sustain above, and drifts back to VWAP, that often signals that the market lacks fuel for a sustained rally. Selling into such strength with tight stops allows traders to ride the downside asymmetry in their favor. If, however, the market opens lower, chasing shorts can be tricky because Mṛita days are not uniformly bearish. In those cases, patience pays: wait for weak bounces to fade rather than attacking weakness directly.

Options provide an even better framework. Since downside tails are heavier, a trader might structure bearish positions with defined risk. Call credit spreads placed near resistance or small put debit spreads aligned with intraday confirmation provide asymmetric payoffs. On days where implied volatility is inflated, selling strangles or iron condors sized small can also work, but with caution: a fat downside candle can quickly damage short premium trades if not hedged.

The psychology of the trader is equally important. On Mṛita Mondays, one of the most dangerous behaviors is overconfidence. Because the median return is close to zero, traders may think the day is harmless. Yet the hidden risk is that when it goes wrong, it goes badly wrong. This demands discipline in sizing. A rule of thumb I personally follow is to cut position size by 25–30% on such Mondays, reserving capital for confirmation rather than prediction. Think of these days as slippery ground: you can walk across, but only if you tread lightly.

Looking deeper, we can refine the signal by layering Nakshatra and Moon sign information. The raw 103 cases show overall averages, but in my research, I noticed that when Mṛita coincides with Scorpio, the Moon’s sign of debilitation, losses are amplified beyond –1.5% on average. Similarly, when the Moon falls under malefic Nakshatras like Ardra or Moola on Mṛita Mondays, the volatility spikes. In contrast, when Mṛita falls under Rohini or Mrigashira, the effect is muted. These nuances point to how astrology provides multiple filters. The avasthā sets the base condition, but the sign and Nakshatra fine-tune the outcome. This is where advanced traders can gain an edge by aligning multiple layers of lunar context before deciding on risk.

Bank Nifty deserves separate attention. While its average return matches Nifty’s, the amplitude is higher. In practice, this means that if a Mṛita Monday produces a strong move, Bank Nifty often exaggerates it. Traders focusing on financials can therefore treat these Mondays as double-edged: they may deliver higher intraday ranges, offering opportunity, but also greater risk of sharp reversals. Again, protective spreads or delta-hedged structures are superior to naked bets.

What is fascinating is that despite the “dead” symbolism of Mṛita, the market is not lifeless on these Mondays. Instead, it oscillates between stillness and sudden jolts. This is perfectly aligned with the Moon’s symbolism: when vitality is absent, instability takes its place. Traders must therefore avoid expecting smooth trends and prepare for stuttering action, often marked by intraday traps. Breakouts fail, momentum fizzles, and late chasers are punished. Those who thrive are the ones who wait for exhaustion and then fade it.

From a cyclical perspective, these results also connect with Gann’s observation that time is more important than price. Mṛita Avasthā does not dictate price levels, but it dictates time qualities—weak, uneven, risk-prone. By respecting these time windows, traders align themselves with the rhythm of nature rather than fighting it. The market becomes less of a mystery and more of a mirror: when the Moon is dead, prices reflect indecision and vulnerability.

To distill this into practical rules: before any Monday trade, check whether the Moon is in Mṛita. If it is, remind yourself that the day carries negative expectancy. Trade smaller, prefer fades over breakouts, and protect with options rather than naked futures. Watch the first hour closely: if early strength stalls, it is often a sell signal. If early weakness stabilizes, wait patiently for a bounce to fade. Never assume smooth trends will carry through; Mṛita prefers jagged patterns. And above all, remember that avoiding big losses is more important than chasing marginal gains on these days.

As markets evolve, one might ask: will these patterns persist? My answer is yes, because the Moon’s influence is not mechanical but psychological. Human minds are still wired to cycles, and Mondays remain emotionally significant as the week’s opening note. When that note is played under the tired hand of Mṛita, traders respond with hesitancy, fear, and overreaction. These behaviors are timeless, and therefore the patterns they create remain relevant.

The marriage of astrological symbolism and statistical backtesting confirms that Mṛita Avasthā Mondays are unique trading environments. They are not consistently bearish, but they are consistently risky in a lopsided way. The average may look harmless, but the tails are dangerous. The wise trader respects this by trading defensively, hedging creatively, and focusing on survival rather than aggression. In doing so, one not only honors the wisdom of astrology but also aligns with the cold facts of market data. The Moon in Mṛita reminds us that sometimes the absence of vitality is itself a force, and in markets, that force translates into asymmetry, traps, and hidden risks. For those who learn to read it, every Monday becomes less of a mystery and more of an opportunity to trade with awareness.